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Introduction: The success of anticipatory action AA in climate change related disaster risk reduction depends largely on the ability to accurately predict adverse weather events and to subsequently take appropriate and timely action. The current seasonal climate forecasts obtained through national and global forecasting centers such as the Zimbabwe Meteorological Services Department MSD and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF have been found to have several limitations including limited skill in intra-seasonal variability which is vital in most processes, lack of accessibility, difficult interpretability and applicability to local communities.
As a result, calls for the integration of Indigenous Knowledge Systems IKS -based climate services in seasonal climate forecasting to bolster the efficacy and accuracy of forecasts are increasing. Methodology: The study employed a mixed methods approach combining a survey of household heads, document reviews and key informant interviews with IKS specialists, AA community of practice members and disaster risk reduction specialists.
Results: This article presents the findings of a study carried out in four semi-arid districts of Zimbabwe Mbire, Matobo, Binga, and Mudzi to assess the feasibility of integrating IKS into the drought AA mechanism at national, district, and ward level. Respondents demonstrated preference for triangulated forecasting to increase reliability.
Both the meteorological approaches to seasonal climate forecasting and the IKS based forecasting had different strengths and weaknesses. Discussion: Based on the found gaps in current seasonal forecasting techniques, local applicability, and limited quantitative analysis in IKS, this study provides a guideline on how scientific and IKS forecasting can be triangulated for leveraging forecasting information in Zimbabwe. The use of IKS may be of utmost relevance to agencies and entities seeking the achievement of drought risk reduction through AA programmes.
Indigenous climate services can play a vital role in improving the effectiveness of Anticipatory Action AA as a disaster risk reduction strategy.